With the 1864 ban axed, will abortion still motivate Arizona voters?

While national political pollsters and pundits scrutinize Arizona for clues as to which side of the political aisle will take the formerly red state in November, you can excuse some Arizona women for being a bit preoccupied with something of more pressing consequence:

Their reproductive rights.

Like other Republican-governed states, Arizona took some unthinkable twists after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Even before a 15-week state abortion ban, signed in 2022 prior to Roe’s upheaval, could go into effect, the Arizona Supreme Court reinstated an 1864 statewide ban that outlawed all abortions except when required to save the mother’s life. It also contained no exceptions for rape or incest and mandated that abortion providers be criminally prosecuted.

That Civil War-era law was repealed earlier this month, though that repeal won’t take effect until 90 days after the ongoing legislative session. But if repeal celebrations were tempered, it’s because many believe that without an amendment enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, such a draconian measure could return.

“Antiabortion extremists in the state legislature will continue their shameless attempts to undermine Arizonans’ basic freedoms and criminalize essential health care,” said Angela Florez, the president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Arizona, in a statement after the repeal.

That’s why abortion rights groups have been working diligently for months to gather enough signatures to put an abortion rights amendment on the November ballot. They already have more than enough signatures, well ahead of a July deadline to put the issue to a vote.

Most of those signatures were collected before the 1864 ban was repealed, however. At least for the moment, the state has stepped back from an extreme antiabortion cliff. Now, more than five months before the general election, Arizona’s brush with disaster raises a couple questions: Without the travesty of that punishing near-total abortion ban dominating the headlines, how many voters will feel motivated to vote for the amendment — or at all — in November? And if voters don’t show up, what will it mean for the many Democrats hoping to ride an abortion rights wave into office?

Murky outlook

According to the Cook Political Report, the political outlook in Arizona is murky. The state’s key Senate race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and likely Republican primary winner Kari Lake is rated as “lean Democrat,” despite Gallego holding a comfortable lead in recent polls.

Gallego is an abortion rights supporter who called it “horrifying that my 9-month-old daughter has less rights than her grandmother (did) in this country.” Lake’s positions have been contradictory, shifting between support of the 1864 ban to a more moderate conservative position.

Yet, a poll of 3,969 likely voters across seven swing states, including Arizona, last week gave former President Donald Trump a three-point lead over President Joe Biden, 47% to 44%. In a five-way matchup with third-party candidates, Trump’s lead increases. In their 2020 matchup for the White House, Biden only narrowly won the state, a third of whose voters are registered independents.

Even accounting for the fact that 2024 will mark the first presidential election since Roe was overturned — and in which Biden should have an advantage with voters who care about abortion rights — the swing state poll found that abortion is not the most decisive issue on the ballot.

Instead, the poll said, voters care more about the economy and tended to perceive Trump as the candidate who is most likely to bring down the cost of living.

'Matter of life and death'

If you talk to Pinny Sheoran, though, you get a different interpretation.

Sheoran is the president of the League of Women Voters of Arizona, and she looks at things less in shades of blue or red and more in terms of democracy and misogyny. And she doesn’t think the polls and pundits can reliably predict what will happen in November.

That’s partly because many of the Arizonans most likely to have a stake in the abortion rights battle — 18-to-45-year-old women — aren’t registered with either party. But many, including Republican women, she said, have become very active supporters of reproductive rights and the proposed constitutional amendment.

That doesn’t necessarily translate into votes for Biden or other Democratic candidates. Arizona voters have a history of split-ticket voting, which Sheoran considers dangerous for women right now. Even with the repeal of the 1864 law, she said the stakes remain high.

If Republicans retain control of Arizona’s legislature, Sheoran fears the party may next make concerted efforts to suppress women’s rights to vote. And if the abortion amendment doesn’t pass, she fears Republicans could revive the near-total abortion ban once more.

If that happens, she said, “We have put the next generation of women in a perilous (place) where it will be a matter of life and death for many — even if they don’t immediately see that.”

Sheoran believes they do. She’s hopeful about the amendment’s passage. She’s felt, seen and heard the momentum propelling it to the ballot. By a large majority, she said, American women want politicians to stay out of their medical decisions. “Women writ large are starting to understand. …

“The power of the women’s vote is more than strong,” Sheoran added. “It will not fail.”