Could Mark Kelly replace Joe Biden as Democratic presidential nominee?

As calls continue for President Joe Biden to give up the Democratic nomination — which, despite his denials, seems increasingly likely — the name of Arizona’s most charismatic astronaut continues to enter the conversation as a replacement.

Polling by analytics company BlueLabs named Arizona Senator Mark Kelly one of four potential Biden replacements. BlueLabs surveyed more than 15,000 voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. The company’s results showed Americans prefer nearly any Democrat for president — including Vice President Kamala Harris — over Biden.

So far, though, Kelly has not joined the chorus of Democrats pushing Biden to leave the race against Donald Trump.

“As Senator Kelly has said repeatedly, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are our nominees,” Jacob Peters, Kelly’s communications director, wrote in a statement to Phoenix New Times, “and he’s going to keep working hard to make sure they win in November and keep Donald Trump out of the White House.

Kelly’s confidence in the president notwithstanding, recent reporting has suggested that Biden’s time fighting for a second term may end soon.

On Thursday, journalist and Newsmax commentator Mark Halperin reported on social media that Biden would announce his withdrawal from the 2024 election over the weekend. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported that people close to Biden believe he’s begun to accept that he “may have to drop out of the race.”

While nothing has been confirmed yet, Halperin said sources told him that should Biden exit the race, the Democratic Party would have an “open convention” in August to choose between Harris and a small number of other potential nominees. Should that happen, Kelly may well be one of them.

That raises a pressing question: Does the Arizona Democrat have what it takes to lead a presidential ticket and beat a resurgent Trump?

Kelly has a lot going for him. He’s a former astronaut, combat veteran and Navy captain who has remained scandal-free during his political career. He’s also married to former Arizona representative Gabby Giffords, who survived a 2011 assassination attempt and has since become a passionate advocate for curbing gun violence.

The couple was married three years before Giffords survived a gunshot to her head in a Tucson grocery store parking lot that left her partially paralyzed. Less than 10 years later, Kelly continued Giffords’ political legacy, winning a seat in the U.S. Senate in 2020.

Put simply: He’s hard to root against.

Pros and cons

Outside Arizona, though, Kelly lacks name recognition. When Kelly excitedly recorded his wife as she served as the grand marshal at the Tournament of Roses Parade in 2023, Arizonans recognized their senator, but one of the game's referees did not. In fact, the referee called him “Mark Lewis.” Kelly might have had ample time to introduce himself to the county in a normal election, but four months creates quite the crunch.

On the other hand, being a relative unknown in the Democratic party may work in Kelly’s favor. BlueLabs’ analysis suggested voters are looking for a “fresh face” and that candidates more closely tied to the current administration, like Harris, performed worse with voters. BlueLabs’ top four potential replacements — Kelly, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — all outpaced Biden by five points.

Notably, Kelly is the only non-governor who made BlueLabs’ list.

Kelly is short on experience, though. He won a 2020 special election against Martha McSally, finishing the rest of the term of the late John McCain. Two years later, Kelly ran for his first full term in office, comfortably defeating Trump-backed Republican Blake Masters. Prior to running for Senate, Kelly had spent more days in space (54) than in any elected office (zero).

Still — and perhaps most important to winning the election — the former astronaut’s election showings in a newly purple swing state have been strong. He’s successfully garnered votes from both sides of the aisle, attracting moderate conservatives repulsed by Trump and other MAGA candidates.

He’s also been a productive lawmaker, ranking 18th out of 48 for effectiveness in the current Senate term, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Effective Lawmaking. Seven of the 35 bills he sponsored passed into law.

And while Kelly has continued to advocate for Biden — he told the Washington Post on July 8 that Biden is “a president who has delivered for the American people in a significant way” — other Arizona Democrats in Congress have broken ranks. Both Rep. Greg Stanton and Tucson Rep. Raúl Grijalva have called for the 81-year-old to step down from seeking the nomination.

Should Biden finally acquiesce, the chorus to draft Kelly may grow.